Statistical Analysis on the Relationship between Traffic Stability, Lane Changing and Vehicle Heterogeneity

Seri Park, Ph.D and Stephen G. Ritchie, Ph.D (University of California, Irvine)

Bongsoo Son, Ph.D (Yonsei University)

Accidents can be described as the breakdown of the complex interaction among road geometry, traffic conditions, driver behavior, and environmental characteristics.  Out of these factors, speed variance, which can also be interpreted as indicator for traffic stability, is known to be highly correlated with the potential or actual accident rate.  The proposed study presents a statistical analysis between driver behavior and speed variance as well as that of vehicle heterogeneity and speed variance.  Detailed individual level vehicle information is obtained with the use of state-of-the-art technology in traffic monitoring.  Investigation and identification of factors influencing speed variance will help to establish countermeasures that will minimize speed variability, and thus improve traffic safety.

Key Words: Speed variance, vehicle signature, vehicle classification, driver behavior, vehicle heterogeneity, vehicle trajectory